How Loot Boxes and In-Game Purchases Will Be Classified in 2026
I am sitting in a regulatory hearing in Brussels, watching a video game executive sweat. He is trying to explain to a panel of stern-faced legislators why a “Loot Llama” in Fortnite is fundamentally different from a slot machine in my casino. He uses terms like “surprise mechanics” and “player delight.” The panel is not buying it. As a representative of the traditional gambling industry, I have mixed feelings. On one hand, I resent that video games have been allowed to groom children with gambling mechanics for a decade without paying the taxes or adhering to the strict loot box regulation that I face daily. On the other hand, I know that when the hammer finally falls on them-and it will fall hard by 2026-it will change the digital entertainment landscape forever. We are witnessing the end of the “wild west” of gaming monetization. The classification of loot boxes as gambling is not just a possibility; it is a geopolitical inevitability that will force the gaming giants to either adapt their entire business model or register as the casinos they secretly are.
The Collapse of the “Value” Defense
For years, the gaming industry’s primary defense was the concept of “guaranteed value.” They argued that because a loot box always contains something (even if it is a worthless common item), it is not gambling. In gambling, you can lose your stake. In a loot box, you always get a “prize.”
I am sitting in a regulatory hearing in Brussels, watching a video game executive sweat. He is trying to explain to a panel of stern-faced legislators why a “Loot Llama” in Fortnite is fundamentally different from a slot machine in my casino. He uses terms like “surprise mechanics” and “player delight.” The panel is not buying it. As a representative of the traditional gambling industry, I have mixed feelings. On one hand, I resent that video games have been allowed to groom children with gambling mechanics for a decade without paying the taxes or adhering to the strict loot box regulation that I face daily. On the other hand, I know that when the hammer finally falls on them-and it will fall hard by 2026-it will change the digital entertainment landscape forever. We are witnessing the end of the “wild west” of gaming monetization. The classification of loot boxes as gambling is not just a possibility; it is a geopolitical inevitability that will force the gaming giants to either adapt their entire business model or register as the casinos they secretly are.
The Collapse of the “Value” Defense
For years, the gaming industry’s primary defense was the concept of “guaranteed value.” They argued that because a loot box always contains something (even if it is a worthless common item), it is not gambling. In gambling, you can lose your stake. In a loot box, you always get a “prize.”